This is my first post of 2026. I hope everyone had a cozy Christmas and a wonderful time with their families. I was personally hoping for a peaceful start to the New Year, but it seems the “holiday break” is officially over—Trump has effectively kicked the door in.
The Board Game Begins: Absolute Resolve
On January 3, 2026, the world woke up to Operation Absolute Resolve. This wasn’t just a surgical strike; it was a predawn kinetic intervention by JSOC and Delta Force that resulted in the capture and extraction of President Nicolás Maduro to the USS Iwo Jima.
I want to be clear: I am not a geopolitical expert. I don’t have a crystal ball for what Russia or China will do next, nor do I know exactly how the power vacuum in Caracas will be filled. To me, this is a massive board game played by nations, and my concern is that the “rules” of the post-Cold War security architecture have just been fundamentally ruptured.
Scenarios & “Oil for Reconstruction”
The administration is calling this a “maximalist interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine”. The plan—the “Oil for Reconstruction” doctrine—is to have U.S. supermajors like ExxonMobil and Chevron “fix” the infrastructure and use Venezuela’s 303 billion barrels of reserves to stabilize the country.
However, as a trader, I’m looking at the “Grey Zone” risks:
The “Rotted” Infrastructure: The oil production facilities are structurally degraded; restoration to 2.5 million bpd could take 3–5 years and $50–$75 billion in capital.
Eurasian Blowback: Russia is already pivoting to asymmetric cyber warfare, and China has the “Rare Earth” weapon ready to squeeze U.S. defense and tech sectors.
Internal Chaos: The removal of Maduro has created a fragmented apparatus between the “Civilian” and “Military” wings, plus the threat of urban insurgency from the Colectivos.
My Trading Approach: Probing the Uncertainty
In events this volatile, I have a very open mind about the outcomes. I won’t be “betting the farm” on a single headline. Instead, I’m sticking to the Progressive Exposure and Pyramiding styles used by the masters.
The Probe: I’m starting with very small initial trades to test the “line of least resistance”. If the market doesn’t confirm my thesis immediately, I’m out with a tiny “tuition fee”.
Earned Right to Size: I will only add to these positions using “House Money” (unrealized profits). The market has to grant me the right to be big.
Risk Funding: As a trade moves in my favor, I’ll move stops to breakeven, creating a “free roll” where I have upside exposure without risking my core principal.
This is going to be a long, potentially violent rehabilitation process for Venezuela. While the “Oil for Reconstruction” premise is a bold move, the reality of a failed state means the path will be costlier than many expect. I’m staying light, staying nimble, and watching the tape.
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